Tuesday, December 30, 2014

November 2014 Sales


Predicted Values 2014-11-01Actual Values 2014-11-01log(Predicted/Actual)Deviance
Acura573.248593.3460.0340.344
Audi626.558582.692-0.0731.071
BMW1,265.2471,177-0.0720.992
Buick681.165719.1920.0540.435
Cadillac551.112523.654-0.0510.452
Chevrolet5,747.0615,998.6540.0431.320
Chrysler1,106.4691,059.462-0.0430.392
Dodge1,542.8951,596.6150.0340.348
Ford7,003.9096,885.154-0.0170.442
GMC1,450.3731,482.3080.0220.238
Honda4,092.5294,067.115-0.0060.045
Hyundai2,088.6181,926.192-0.0811.197
Infiniti400.805347.885-0.1421.098
Jaguar43.82538.731-0.1240.414
Jeep2,340.9662,123-0.0981.147
Kia1,747.9401,719-0.0170.293
Land.Rover169.461140.115-0.1901.324
Lexus999.762898.269-0.1070.909
Lincoln340.165341.6540.0040.043
Mazda867.095723-0.1821.772
Mercedes.Benz1,371.8151,182.038-0.1493.887
Mini162.118203.8460.2291.141
Mitsubishi216.767238.4230.0950.570
Nissan4,042.6243,618.154-0.1111.233
Porsche167.925141.038-0.1741.958
Subaru1,721.2891,654.308-0.0400.693
Toyota6,140.6916,047.115-0.0150.134
Volkswagen1,156.9011,165.8850.0080.072
Volvo182.566152.769-0.1780.899
>
Predicted Values for 2014-12-01
Acura667.614
Audi748.881
BMW1,231.561
Buick763.555
Cadillac655.731
Chevrolet6,835.125
Chrysler1,120.799
Dodge1,931.639
Ford7,970.101
GMC1,982.801
Honda4,761.918
Hyundai2,573.571
Infiniti481.029
Jaguar51.756
Jeep2,570.222
Kia1,691.116
Land.Rover186.583
Lexus1,401.406
Lincoln379.194
Mazda934.056
Mercedes.Benz1,182.489
Mini201.142
Mitsubishi236.740
Nissan3,842.358
Porsche150.558
Subaru1,937.090
Toyota6,542.211
Volkswagen1,310.049
Volvo153.500
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Thursday, December 11, 2014

Predicting Car Ratings From Text

Using car reviews that are associated with ratings, I built a model that predicts car ratings from new car review text.

I hope to make this a car review "aggregator" where the ratings from different car publications (car and driver, motor trend, etc) are compared to get a more complete rating of a car without reading every review, kind of like Rotten Tomatoes for cars.


Below are the results form my model and the text with autoblog.com reviews. The Ratings range from 1-4, where 1 is worst.


Website of ReviewPredicted Rating From Text
www.autoblog.com/2014/12/10/2015-nissan-juke-quick-spin-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/12/09/2015-polaris-slingshot-first-drive-review-video/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/12/08/2015-nissan-murano-first-drive-review/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/12/05/2015-volkswagen-touareg-quick-spin-review-video/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/12/01/2015-porsche-911-carrera-gts-quick-spin-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/11/25/2016-smart-forfour-quick-spin-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/11/24/2015-volkswagen-golf-r-review-video/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/11/18/2015-bentley-mulsanne-speed-quick-spin-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/11/17/2016-audi-s6-review-quick-spin/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/11/14/2016-mercedes-amg-gt-first-drive-review-video/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/11/10/2016-smart-fortwo-first-drive-review/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/11/03/2015-porsche-cayenne-s-e-hybrid-quick-spin-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/10/30/2015-cadillac-ats-coupe-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/10/28/2014-citroen-ds3-cabrio-racing-review-quick-spin/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/10/24/2015-dodge-challenger-rt-scat-pack-quick-spin-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/10/22/2015-subaru-outback-review/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/10/20/2015-aston-martin-v12-vantage-s-roadster-quick-spin-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/10/16/2015-kia-soul-ev-review-quick-spin/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/10/15/2015-audi-a3-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/10/14/2015-ford-focus-ecoboost-first-drive-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/10/13/2015-bmw-x6-first-drive-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/10/10/2015-rolls-royce-ghost-series-ii-review-first-drive-video/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/10/08/2016-audi-tts-review-quick-spin/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/10/02/2015-ford-f-150-first-drive-review-video/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/10/01/2014-renault-twingo-first-drive-review/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/30/2015-honda-cr-v-review-first-drive/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/29/2014-cadillac-elr-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/26/2014-pagani-huayra-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/25/2015-toyota-sienna-review-quick-spin/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/25/2015-toyota-yaris-first-drive-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/24/2015-gmc-canyon-quick-spin-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/24/2015-chevy-colorado-first-drive-review-video/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/23/2015-porsche-cayenne-s-first-drive-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/22/2015-toyota-camry-hybrid-quick-spin-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/22/2015-toyota-camry-first-drive-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/19/2015-ford-mustang-gt-first-drive-review-video/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/18/2014-kia-ceed-gt-review-quick-spin/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/17/2015-kia-sedona-first-drive-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/15/2015-lincoln-navigator-first-drive-review/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/11/2014-maserati-ghibli-diesel-quick-spin-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/10/2016-audi-tt-first-drive-review-video/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/09/2015-volkswagen-eos-final-edition-review-quick-spin/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/08/2016-jaguar-xe-deep-dive-photos-official/4
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/08/2015-lexus-rc-350-review-quick-spin/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/05/2015-lexus-rc-f-first-drive-review/4
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/04/2014-dinan-s1-bmw-m5-quick-spin-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/03/2015-jaguar-f-type-v6-s-coupe-review/4
www.autoblog.com/2014/09/02/2015-infiniti-q70l-review-quick-spin/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/08/29/2015-cadillac-escalade-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/08/28/2014-volkswagen-e-up-quick-spin-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/08/27/2014-kia-forte-koup-sx-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/08/27/2015-volvo-xc90-deep-dive-live-reveal-official/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/08/22/2014-land-rover-range-rover-quick-spin-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/08/21/nissan-nv200-taxi-nyc-review-quick-spin/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/08/20/2015-chevrolet-corvette-stingray-review-quick-spin/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/08/19/2014-audi-r8-v8-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/08/18/2014-mercedes-benz-s63-amg-quick-spin-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/08/14/2014-mercedes-benz-e63-amg-s-4matic-wagon-review/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/08/11/2015-audi-s8-quick-spin-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/08/07/2014-volkswagen-scirocco-r-first-drive-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/08/06/2015-mercedes-benz-c-class-second-drive-review/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/08/05/2015-cadillac-ats-coupe-first-drive-review/4
www.autoblog.com/2014/08/04/2015-acura-tlx-first-drive-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/31/2015-porsche-macan-s-quick-spin-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/30/2014-nissan-frontier-diesel-mule-poll/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/29/2015-ford-f-series-super-duty-power-stroke-first-drive-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/28/2016-infiniti-q50-eau-rouge-prototype-first-drive-review-video/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/24/2014-audi-sq5-review/4
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/22/2015-dodge-challenger-srt-hellcat-first-drive-review-video/4
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/21/2015-ford-expedition-review-first-drive/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/18/2014-renault-clio-rs-200-turbo-review-quick-spin/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/17/2014-dodge-journey-crossroad-review-quick-spin/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/16/2015-nissan-370z-nismo-review-quick-spin/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/15/2015-audi-a3-e-tron-video/4
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/14/2015-lexus-nx-300h-quick-spin/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/11/2014-volkswagen-amarok-canyon-quick-spin/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/10/2014-toyota-fj-cruiser-ultimate-edition-review-quick-spin/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/09/2015-aston-martin-v8-vantage-gt-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/08/2014-hyundai-i40-tourer-sonata-wagon-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/07/2015-lexus-nx-200t-first-drive-review/4
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/07/lexus-turbocharged-four-cylinder-engine-nx200t-deep-dive/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/07/01/2015-subaru-outback-first-drive-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/30/2015-hyundai-sonata-first-drive-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/27/2014-mini-cooper-s-review/4
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/25/2014-jaguar-xjl-awd-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/24/2015-ford-edge-deep-dive-official/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/24/2014-bentley-continental-gt-v8-s-convertible-quick-spin-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/23/2014-hyundai-elantra-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/19/j-ruiter-reboot-buggy-first-drive-review-video/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/18/2015-hyundai-tucson-fuel-cell-quick-spin-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/17/2014-jaguar-xfr-s-sportbrake-first-drive-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/16/2015-alfa-romeo-4c-first-drive-review-video/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/13/2015-bentley-flying-spur-v8-quick-spin-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/11/2015-ford-transit-first-drive-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/09/2015-lincoln-mkc-first-drive-review/2
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/06/2015-bmw-4-series-gran-coupe-quick-spin-review/4
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/05/2015-volkswagen-golf-tsi-first-drive-review/3
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/03/2015-ferrari-california-t-video-first-drive-review/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/06/02/2015-chrysler-200s-awd-review/1
www.autoblog.com/2014/05/30/2015-volkswagen-gti-review-first-drive/2
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Tuesday, November 18, 2014

October 2014 Sales

Obviously previous predictions were all below the mark since everything is up. Perhaps I should start including economic variables as regressors... stay tuned.

Below are next months predictions And Shiny APP


Predicted Values for 2014-11-01
Acura573.248
Audi626.558
BMW1,265.247
Buick681.165
Cadillac551.112
Chevrolet5,747.061
Chrysler1,106.469
Dodge1,542.895
Ford7,003.909
GMC1,450.373
Honda4,092.529
Hyundai2,088.618
Infiniti400.805
Jaguar43.825
Jeep2,340.966
Kia1,747.940
Land.Rover169.461
Lexus999.762
Lincoln340.165
Mazda867.095
Mercedes.Benz1,371.815
Mini162.118
Mitsubishi216.767
Nissan4,042.624
Porsche167.925
Subaru1,721.289
Toyota6,140.691
Volkswagen1,156.901
Volvo182.566
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Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Predicting Monthly Car Sales: The Residuals are the Story


I'll produce predictions for US car sales by manufacture every month. There are already several blogs that describe the industry and sales that do a great job. Autoblog by the Numbers and Counting Cars are some to mention. 

Unlike their analysis, I'll try to focus on the residuals (the stuff I can't predict) to tell the story. To highlight the difference, I think its instructive to look at what Autoblog mentioned.

The Autoblog article (link above) highlights Mitsubishi for increasing sales. However, my prediction for Mitsubishi sales are pretty much exactly what the sales were. In essence, given this model, we didn't learn much. On the other hand, Land Rover and Jaguar had the largest residuals (in percent terms) and Land Rover and Acura had the largest deviance (Residual / Variance). I think these results are more telling because we didn't predict them correctly; something might have changed. 

I'll publish this on a new blog: datAmotive.

Github
Here is a  Shiny App For Car Sales and below are graphs / tables of my current analysis and future predictions. 







Predicted Values 9/14Actual Values 9/14log(Predicted/Actual)Deviance
Acura488.036576.3330.1661.731
Audi632.252621.542-0.0170.326
BMW1,061.3291,066.0830.0040.032
Buick649.648727.7500.1140.571
Cadillac568.021576.2080.0140.089
Chevrolet6,284.5946,411.3750.0200.135
Chrysler1,058.3921,199.2080.1250.710
Dodge1,892.4651,834.167-0.0310.172
Ford7,374.6697,177.542-0.0270.285
GMC1,602.2601,594.542-0.0050.029
Honda4,434.7804,349.625-0.0190.174
Hyundai2,291.3062,333.7500.0180.271
Infiniti315.217326.5420.0350.234
Jaguar37.83447.5830.2290.908
Jeep2,491.3782,301.292-0.0790.853
Kia1,853.7341,692.833-0.0911.115
Land.Rover159.975129.417-0.2121.816
Lexus1,011.967910.500-0.1061.189
Lincoln285.903302.3750.0560.394
Mazda1,074.272999.167-0.0720.743
Mercedes.Benz1,186.2201,230.1250.0360.364
Mini196.975175.792-0.1140.626
Mitsubishi231.582231.5830.000000.00002
Nissan4,176.9953,963.250-0.0530.516
Porsche156.496150.292-0.0400.408
Subaru1,727.5971,729.8750.0010.026
Toyota6,928.4726,059.458-0.1341.309
Volkswagen1,123.4121,083.167-0.0360.407
Volvo161.531194.4580.1861.070




Predicted Values for 10/14
Acura521.878
Audi590.125
BMW1,051.492
Buick666.165
Cadillac533.468
Chevrolet5,693.145
Chrysler1,097.288
Dodge1,493.426
Ford6,694.012
GMC1,572.525
Honda4,049.582
Hyundai1,998.896
Infiniti262.475
Jaguar40.422
Jeep2,132.652
Kia1,650.236
Land.Rover160.884
Lexus944.946
Lincoln272.964
Mazda894.234
Mercedes.Benz1,184.991
Mini183.743
Mitsubishi193.982
Nissan3,629.955
Porsche158.540
Subaru1,694.661
Toyota5,895.316
Volkswagen923.242
Volvo153.691
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